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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 38

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:53) 10-K.Huber punts 32 yards to PIT 6, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-19-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.84 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.74 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP