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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 66

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(10:19) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 34 yards to SEA 32, Center-47-K.McDermott. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 39 for 7 yards (26-T.Waynes).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.54 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -2.16 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 24, worth -2.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP