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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 30

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(5:51) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 22-F.Jackson to MIN 23 for 7 yards (24-C.Munnerlyn).

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.84 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 40, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.81 EP