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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 26

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(7:09) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.95 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.75 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 36, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT +0.56 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model