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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 29

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(:07) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.92 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 29, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.72 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT +0.53 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model