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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 54

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(10:53) 5-T.Bridgewater up the middle to MIN 48 for 2 yards (92-B.Mebane, 54-B.Wagner).

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.96 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 54, worth -2.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 16, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model