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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 60

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Minnesota Vikings 9

What Actually Happened

(4:27) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 41 yards to MIN 19, Center-49-C.Gresham, downed by SEA-91-C.Marsh.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.39 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 60, worth -2.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 19, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP