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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 70

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Minnesota Vikings 9

What Actually Happened

(1:51) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 41 yards to MIN 29, Center-49-C.Gresham. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 39 for 10 yards (33-K.McCray).

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.16 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 70, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 28, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model