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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 45

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(8:05) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 23 yards to SEA 22, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-47-K.McDermott.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.39 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -1.61 EP
KICK -0.54 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.04 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT +0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth +0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model