Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 75

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(7:01) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan Aborted. 49-C.Gresham FUMBLES at SEA 11, recovered by SEA-9-J.Ryan at SEA 11. 9-J.Ryan to SEA 29 for 18 yards (31-J.McKinnon).

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

What Happened

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.57 EP
56% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 75, worth -4.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.32 EP