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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 4

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(1:06) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +3.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.59 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 4, worth +0.62 EP
KICK +2.58 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.42 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP