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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 88

New England Patriots 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(10:51) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to KC 45, Center-49-J.Cardona. 85-F.Hammond to NE 36 for 19 yards (85-M.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.58 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 88, worth -4.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 46, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model