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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 37

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 2-D.Colquitt punts 33 yards to NE 4, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-57-D.Alexander. PENALTY on NE-80-D.Amendola, Unnecessary Roughness, 2 yards, enforced at NE 4.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.08 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 37, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.39 EP