Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 18 at the 88

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – New England Patriots 24

(12:37) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to NE 46, Center-41-J.Winchester. 80-D.Amendola pushed ob at KC 32 for 22 yards (41-J.Winchester).

The Three Options

GO -3.37 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.24 EP
73% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 88, worth -5.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model