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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 13

New England Patriots 24 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(10:24) 3-S.Gostkowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski now has 126 career postseason points, ties Thurman Thomas & Emmitt Smith for 5th all-time.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.45 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 13, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 23, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model