Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 51

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(7:38) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right intended for 12-A.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Harmon at NE 23. 30-D.Harmon ran ob at NE 23 for no gain. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 12-A.Wilson (30-D.Harmon).

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP

What Happened

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.98 EP
69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 51, worth -2.39 EP

KICK -1.37 EP

23% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
77% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model