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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 16

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 5-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.11 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 16, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.09 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 26, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -1.26 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model