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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 66

New England Patriots 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-R.Allen punts 41 yards to KC 25, Center-49-J.Cardona. 85-F.Hammond to KC 33 for 8 yards (38-B.Bolden).

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +3.19 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 66, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT +0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 24, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model