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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 77

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Carolina Panthers 31

What Actually Happened

(3:25) (Punt formation) 35-D.Shead right end pushed ob at SEA 40 for 17 yards (14-J.Webb).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.04 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model