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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 50

Carolina Panthers 31 – Seattle Seahawks 21

What Actually Happened

(2:55) 8-B.Nortman punts 33 yards to SEA 17, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett. PENALTY on CAR-55-D.Mayo, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 17.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.66 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 50, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP