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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 18

Seattle Seahawks 21 – Carolina Panthers 31

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 4-S.Hauschka 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +4.02 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model