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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 65

New England Patriots 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(13:12) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to DEN 18, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 17 for -1 yards (36-B.King).

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.98 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 65, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 23, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model