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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 46

Denver Broncos 17 – New England Patriots 12

What Actually Happened

(6:49) 4-B.Colquitt punts 38 yards to NE 8, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.00 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 13, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP