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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 14 at the 96

New England Patriots 12 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(4:52) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to DEN 44, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-36-B.King.

The Three Options

GO -3.94 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.55 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 96, worth -5.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -3.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 53, worth -3.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model