Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 57

Denver Broncos 17 – New England Patriots 12

(2:48) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to NE 4, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-48-S.Barrett.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.99 EP
71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 57, worth -3.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model