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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 80

Denver Broncos 20 – New England Patriots 12

What Actually Happened

(4:46) 4-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to NE 26, Center-46-A.Brewer. 80-D.Amendola to NE 29 for 3 yards (14-C.Latimer).

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.87 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 80, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 37, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model