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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 50

New England Patriots 12 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(1:34) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 87-R.Gronkowski to DEN 10 for 40 yards (20-J.Bush; 25-C.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.20 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 50, worth -1.56 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model