4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 73

New England Patriots 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(6:52) 6-R.Allen punts 55 yards to DEN 18, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 34 for 16 yards (85-M.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.87 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 73, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 31, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model