Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 61

New York Jets 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

(13:46) 4-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to CIN 7, Center-46-T.Purdum. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 22 for 15 yards (58-E.Henderson; 47-K.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.18 EP
74% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 61, worth -2.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model