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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 27

New York Jets 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(3:23) 2-N.Folk 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.45 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 27, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model