4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 77

New York Jets 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(12:00) 4-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to CIN 30, Center-46-T.Purdum. 24-A.Jones to CIN 36 for 6 yards (95-J.Martin).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.66 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model