4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 69

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – New York Jets 16

What Actually Happened

(10:07) 10-K.Huber punts 56 yards to NYJ 13, Center-46-C.Harris. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 16 for 3 yards (86-J.Wright; 26-J.Shaw).

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.55 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 69, worth -3.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 27, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model