4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 61

New York Jets 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(7:26) 4-L.Edwards punts 53 yards to CIN 8, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.28 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 61, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 20, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model