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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 34

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – New York Jets 19

What Actually Happened

(9:06) 2-M.Nugent 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.45 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 34, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 44, worth -1.99 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model