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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 15

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(1:32) 2-M.Nugent 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.16 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 15, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 25, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model