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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 19

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(:28) 6-C.Sturgis 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.24 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 19, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 29, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model