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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 17

Cleveland Browns 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(14:01) 2-P.Murray 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.32 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 17, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 27, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model