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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 43

Philadelphia Eagles 22 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 8-D.Jones punts 42 yards to CLE 1, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-26-J.Watkins.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.14 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 43, worth -1.62 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT +0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth +0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model