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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 96

Cleveland Browns 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 22

What Actually Happened

(13:56) 4-B.Colquitt punts 43 yards to CLE 47, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -3.54 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -0.49 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 96, worth -5.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -2.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 53, worth -2.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model