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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 45

Philadelphia Eagles 22 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(11:41) 8-D.Jones punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.55 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 45, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model