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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 79

Cleveland Browns 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 22

What Actually Happened

(10:08) 4-B.Colquitt punts 58 yards to PHI 21, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 29 for 8 yards (34-I.Crowell).

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.11 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 79, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 36, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model