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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 16 at the 40

Philadelphia Eagles 22 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(4:35) 8-D.Jones punts 32 yards to CLE 8, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-56-B.Braman.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.05 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 40, worth -1.51 EP
KICK -0.25 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model