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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 85

Cleveland Browns 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 22

What Actually Happened

(3:41) (Shotgun) 10-R.Griffin pass incomplete short left to 16-A.Hawkins.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.53 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 85, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 43, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.30 EP