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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 70

Cleveland Browns 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(8:44) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to PHI 21, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 26 for 5 yards (47-C.Hughlett).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 28, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model