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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 67

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(6:25) 8-D.Jones punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.58 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 67, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 25, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model