Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 77

Cleveland Browns 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

(4:30) 4-B.Colquitt punts 59 yards to PHI 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 43-D.Sproles to CLE 42 for 40 yards (24-I.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.04 EP
59% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 77, worth -4.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model