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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 28

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(:51) 6-C.Sturgis 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.67 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 28, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 38, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model