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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 32

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 4-A.Vinatieri 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.16 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 32, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.53 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 42, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model