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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 71

Detroit Lions 21 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(12:48) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to IND 15, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 71, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.62 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 29, worth -1.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model