Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 62

Indianapolis Colts 18 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(6:05) 1-P.McAfee punts 48 yards to DET 14, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds. PENALTY on IND-41-M.Farley, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 15 yards, enforced at DET 14.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.73 EP
69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 62, worth -3.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model